World Bank · 2015 · 226 pages

The most important economic document in the Kandaka library. Written at the moment Sudan hit rock bottom — 75% of fiscal revenue gone with South Sudan, the Gezira Scheme in collapse, gold and gum arabic the only remaining export earners — it is the most comprehensive and actionable analysis of Sudan’s economic predicament and potential.

Core Finding

A 2% annual increase in crop agriculture productivity would:

  • Raise GDP growth by ~1 percentage point per year
  • Reduce the poverty rate from 38.4% (baseline) to 29.4% by 2030
  • Lift millions of Sudanese out of poverty from a single sector intervention

The Three-Stage Ladder

The CEM maps a sequenced development pathway specific to Sudan’s endowments:

  1. Revive agriculture — Sudan’s only sector with genuine comparative advantage post-oil. Gezira Scheme rehabilitation, fertiliser access (currently 7.3 kg/ha vs Ethiopia’s 17 kg/ha), exchange rate correction (overvalued for 40 years, penalising exporters).

  2. Build agro-processing — Capture more value from sesame, gum arabic, sorghum, and livestock rather than exporting raw. Sudan supplies ~80% of the world’s gum arabic; it processes almost none.

  3. Scale into light manufacturing — Using the agro-processing platform as a foundation for broader productive diversification.

Key Constraints Identified

  • Real exchange rate overvalued for four decades, making Sudanese agricultural exports uncompetitive
  • Fertiliser use at 7.3 kg/ha (one of the lowest in Africa)
  • Near-total collapse of the Gezira Scheme, once 900,000 hectares of irrigated farmland
  • Dependence on gold and gum arabic as only remaining foreign exchange earners post-2011
  • Fiscal space destroyed by loss of oil revenues

Why It Remains Relevant in 2026

The 2025 World Bank Sudan Economic Update confirmed that the 2023 war has dramatically set back Sudan’s economy — but it did not change the underlying diagnosis. The agricultural endowments remain. The potential remains. The CEM describes what Sudan needs to rebuild toward; the 2025 update describes how much further back the starting line has moved.

This paper reads best alongside the World Bank Sudan Economic Update 2025, which documents how much the 2023 war has deepened the crisis the CEM was trying to address.

Access the full report (World Bank Documents)